Packaging Regulation
2026-2030
NEW REGULATION - THE COUNTDOWN HAS BEGUN
From August 12, 2026, all packaging stakeholders in Europe will face the combined impact of PPWR, SUPD, PFAS, and EUDR. For many industrialists, processors, importers, and distributors, these are still "distant" acronyms. Yet, between 2026 and 2030, these texts will decisively determine which materials exit the market, which become 10 to 35% more expensive, and which gain market share.
This page has a simple goal: to provide a clear and operational vision of what will disappear, what will surge, and what will remain in packaging (both food and non-food) in Europe, so you can anticipate the impact on your references, margins, and supplies... instead of enduring it.
Key Effective Date
12
AUGUST
2026
Profy Countdown Timer: Visible on Live site
NEW REGULATION - THE COUNTDOWN HAS BEGUN
2026-2030
the silent big bang of packaging materials in Europe
From August 2026 to 2030, the European packaging materials market will experience the biggest regulatory shake-up in its history… and a significant portion of the industry has yet to grasp its full extent.
PPWR, SUPD, REACH/PFAS, and EUDR are not "just more texts." Together, they orchestrate one simple thing: forced circularity, with a brutal sorting between materials that stay and those that exit the game.
Concretely, this means for all packaging stakeholders (food and non-food, paper, plastic, thermoformed, multilayer, import, distribution):
part of the current offering will mechanically drop to zero in Europe,
another part will see its costs rise by 10 to 35%
new materials and models will take their place, with very clear winners
This page aims to lay all the cards on the table, without jargon, for all those who "have heard about PPWR" without grasping its concrete consequences on their references, margins, and supplies.
Minerya Offers a Mineral Sheet
Minerya Offers a Mineral Sheet
What is destined to disappear or be marginalised
Non-mono-material or solely fibre multi-layered, with non-recyclable chemical barriers
(PE + aluminium + paper, PET + PE inseparable, complex barrier films)
All packaging with detectable PFAS
beyond thresholds
(25 ppb individual, 250 ppb total, 50 ppm overall)
Rigid single-use plastic or films
under 60 µm that are non-reusable
Virgin paper without EUDR-compliant forest traceability
What will grow significantly
Mono-material fibre (100% recyclable paper/cardboard) or mono-plastic (rPET, rPP) with proven recyclability
Reusable or deposit solutions, and certified industrial compostables
Bio-based materials or those with a high recycled content
Optimised formats, with material reduction and reuse logic
Food packaging
A simplified but much more demanding market
From August 12, 2026, all segments of food packaging are affected simultaneously
Unseparable multi-layers become progressively unacceptable
(PPWR, minimum recyclability of 70% by 2030)
PFAS disappear from greaseproof papers and food thermoforms, under immediate threat of ban
Single-use rigid plastics and light films are reduced by the SUPD and replaced by reusable or mono recyclable
All virgin fibre must be traceable to the plot level (EUDR), under threat of blockage
Very concrete consequences on final products
Products in decline or dropping >70 %
Multi-layer vacuum bags for ham and charcuterie
PS (and expanded PS) trays for cheeses, desserts, snacks
Classic multi-layer stretch films
PFAS greaseproof papers for caterers and fast food
Aluminium + PE wrap film, multi-layer blisters for fruits, pizza boxes with plastic windows
Classic PS yoghurt pots
Products in strong progression
Packaging films for meats and caterers in unbleached paper, with bio-based coating
Meat trays in recycled PET (rPET) and recycled PP (rPP), 100% recyclable
Egg and fruit trays in reinforced moulded pulp
Yoghurt pots in recycled rPP or rPET
Pizza boxes in 100% recycled cardboard
Recyclable mono-PE snack bags, glass jars with deposits, reusable cloths for caterers
The 2030 landscape is clear
about 60% mono-fibre
25%
recycled mono-plastic
15% reusable/deposit
solutions
Imports
End of the low-cost finished product paradise
August 12, 2026, also marks a major turning point for packaging imports into the EU
Two simple rules
Any imported finished product must be fully compliant with PPWR, PFAS, SUPD, and EUDR upon entry into the territory
The importer or first market entrant bears 100% responsibility, with immediate blockage, destruction, or return, and fines of up to 4% of turnover in case of non-compliance
In practice
40 to 55% of finished products currently imported from Asia (especially multi-layered, PS, PFAS, complex films) risk being blocked or gradually phased out
"Complex finished product" flows will collapse in favour of "raw materials + finishing in Europe" flows
What will remain under very strong import pressure
PFAS greaseproofs, multi-layer barrier films, PS and multi-layer thermoformed, oxo-degradable or composite tarpaulins, complex plasticised snack bags, plasticised tracing papers, luxury virgin cardboard cases without EUDR with plastic windows
What will, on the contrary, become standard
Recycled or traceable virgin pulp (with EUDR compliance), rPET/rPP/rHDPE/PLA pellets, base PET/PP sheets without coating, non-coated cardboard/paper reels, bio granules (PHA, starch)
Finishing (extrusion, thermoforming, coating, conversion) performed in Europe, to secure compliance and traceability
Result
Actors with transformation capacities in Europe will absorb a massive share of the value, while models based solely on importing finished products from Asia will potentially lose 30 to 60% of their volumes.
Prices & margins
Where is the real cost of materials going?
The regulatory transition comes at a price, at least initially.
Between 2026 and 2028, food and non-food packaging should experience
An average increase of 18 to 28% in B2B prices, linked to reformulations, PFAS audits, EUDR certifications, and the shift to mono-material
Then, stabilisation, or even slight decreases in the major winning families, thanks to economies of scale
Three clear trends emerge.
Products exiting the market
(price → 0 product available in the EU)
PFAS greaseproofs, multi-layer barrier films, multi-layer PS thermoforms, oxo-degradable/multi-layer tarpaulins, classic plastic condiment sachets, plasticised menus, paper + aluminium + PE composites
→ About 25 to 35% of the current market disappears or is entirely recomposed between the end of 2026 and the end of 2027.
Products that remain but at a higher cost
Minerya Offers a Mineral Sheet
Reformulated bio-coated greaseproof papers
→ +25 to +35%
Virgin cardboards shifting to 100% recycled or bio-coated
→ +20 to +30%
PET thermoforms to mono-rPET
→ +20 to +35%
Luxury cases in premium mono-recycled cardboard
→ +10 to +25%
Tracing papers to 100% recycled or nanocellulose
→ +10 to +20%
Products that may remain stable or decrease
Mono-rPET and rPP for thermoforms
→ stability, or -5 to -10% with the rise of recycled content
Moulded pulp
→ stable prices or slight decline with volume
Naturally unbleached papers already compliant
→ limited increase (+5 to +10%)
At the portfolio level, the most sensitive cost items will be
PFAS substitution → bio-coating
+0.35 to 0.65 €/kg
Multi-layer → mono shift
+0.40 to 0.90 €/kg
EUDR certification and PFAS tests
+0.10 to 0.25 €/kg, amortisable over volume
Implementation of reusable/deposit solutions
significant CAPEX, but per-use cost reduced by 30 to 60% in the medium term
What this implies for an industrialist, processor, distributor
For a B2B actor, this shift is not just an "RSE" or "compliance" issue.
It is an immediate business issue
Real risk of disruption or blockage on 20 to 35% of current references
Regulatory and financial exposure in case of maintaining inseparable multi-layers or residual PFAS
Cost increase on certain ranges, but opportunity to regain 15 to 30% market share in segments where competitors react too late
Concrete steps to take now
Map references
identify, for each family, what is mono, multi-layer, PFAS, non-traceable virgin fibre, finished import, etc.
Classify by 2026-2030 risk
what will disappear, what needs heavy and costly reformulation, what is already compliant.
Shift purchases to "raw materials
+ finishing EU" flows to secure PPWR, PFAS, and EUDR
Work from 2026 with converters on mono-material, reusable, or high-recycled-content alternatives.
Conclusion:
the market is not shrinking, it is recomposing
European packaging will not "collapse" with PPWR, SUPD, PFAS, and EUDR. It is fundamentally recomposing around one principle: real, measurable, and controllable circularity.
Companies that simply wait for the final decrees to "adjust a technical sheet" take a direct risk on their volumes, margins, and, ultimately, their licence to operate.
Those who use these four years to:
Audit the recyclability of their portfolios
Substitute PFAS
Secure EUDR traceability
Shift from imported finished products to raw materials finished in Europe
will be the players who have gained market share in 2030 while others were still trying to save their multi-layers.
And now, what to do concretely between 2026 and 2030?
If you are an industrialist, processor, or distributor, the real question is no longer "will these texts pass?" but "which product families in my portfolio will disappear, increase in cost, or remain favoured?".
In practice, the 4 priority movements to engage are:
1
Map your packaging portfolio
Identify, family by family, what is:
mono-material / inseparable multi-layer
with / without PFAS
EUDR-traceable virgin fibre / non-traceable
finished import / raw material
+ finishing EU
Classify your references by 2026-2030 risk
2
Distinguish
what is destined to disappear or be banned
what requires heavy and costly reformulation
what is already aligned with PPWR, PFAS, SUPD, and EUDR
3
Secure your supply chains
Reduce your dependence:
And gradually shift towards "raw materials + transformation in Europe" flows
on complex multi-layers
on PFAS
on non-traceable virgin fibres
on sensitive finished product imports from Asia
4
Integrate now "2030 winning materials
Test and introduce mono-material
mono-material
recyclable
greaseproof/waterproof solutions
compatible with food contact
and out of regulatory grey areas
These are the materials that will remain available, stable, and competitive once regulatory sorting has taken effect.
What this implies for an industrialist, processor, distributor
It is an immediate business issue
A mono-material sheet designed to meet PPWR, PFAS, SUPD, and EUDR requirements
Replace certain at-risk references without waiting until 2029.
This simplified summary has been prepared by our company. Panibag SAS cannot guarantee its completeness or the accuracy of its interpretation.
For the exact obligations, please refer to the official texts and the sources below.
Sources
Find the original sources and the full regulations via the following links: